Topic: Australian Open Power Rankings

Men's Finalists Power Rankings

Stan Wawrinka: 370
Rafael Nadal: 292
Predicted Winner: Rafael Nadal (1000%)


Women's Finalists Power Rankings

Li Na: 268
Dominika Cibulkova: 206
Predicted Winner: Li Na (86.5%)


Men's Semifinalists Power Rankings

Stan Wawrinka: 175
Tomas Berdych: 25
Predicted Winner: Stan Wawrinka (81%)

Roger Federer: 479
Rafael Nadal: 57
Predicted Winner: Roger Federer (65.5%)


Women's Semifinalists Power Rankings

Li Na: 267
Eugenie Bouchard: 200
Predicted Winner: Li Na (75%)

Agnieszka Radwanska: 332
Dominika Cibulkova: 112
Predicted Winner: Agnieszka Radwanska (91.5%)


Predicted Semifinalists:

Nadal (98%)
Federer (78.5%)
Djokovic (74%)
Berdych/Ferrer (50% - no pick)
---
Azarenka (77.5%)
Halep (60.5%)
Ivanovic (76%) *head-to-head not factored, 0-1 against Bouchard
Pennetta (55.5%)

PERCENT CORRECT: 40%0

Last edited by Arvis (Jan. 24, 2014 9:32am)

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

UPDATED

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

My predicted semi finalists
Nadal
Federer
Berdych
Wawrinka

Ivanovic
Li Na
Halep
Radwanska

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

..you two are definitely true brothers, no doubt about that.

2016: Rey Saber, Lord Vader, Supreme Jedi, Yoda Crew player of the year
2014: Lord Vader, King Droid, Naboo Champion, Yoda Crew player of the year
2013: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion, Yoda Cup Guru Runner-up
2012: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

wink

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

What's THAT supposed to mean, Adunar?!?!?

-Arvis

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

this power rankings looks awesome, but there's one thing that I wonder...
does it really work? does include all the matches, or just the last ones? how it's been scored?

Last edited by Edu_Anackin (Jan. 20, 2014 1:13pm)

2019: AO Yoda Cup, Obi Wan, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Performance of the Year, Year End #3
2018: Obi Wan, Rey Saber, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Most correct picks Award, Year End #2.
2017: BB-8 Cup, Year End #4. 2016: Padme Cup, RG Yoda Cup, Leia Tiara, Trophy Case Award, Rey Saber runner up, Year End #3.
2015: Lando Calrissian's Ring, GQ "The Green Anackin".

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Edu, I wanted to try doing the Power Rankings just on a round-by-round basis at first, just to cut down on the amount of time it takes to do the calculations.  Also, keeping it based ONLY on the last match played, it can better take into account x-factors like Player Freshness, etc.  However, I do think I could get a better idea of how a player is doing overall if I added Power Rating results up over the course of multiple matches.

I was thinking that I might do Power Ratings for every player that makes it to the 4th round, instead of every player in QFs.  It'll be interesting to see, over the course of 4 Slams, how often the Power Rankings accurately predict winners.

As for how it is scored, I posted the formula in another thread somewhere, but here it is again, just for you Edu. smile

Aces = +10 per
Double Faults = -10 per
Percentage of points won on serve = +1 pt per
Breaks won = +20 per
Breaks lost = -20 per
Break chances = +5 per
Break points face = -5 per
Winners = +10
Unforced Errors = -10
% of Points Won = +1 for each percentage point (this is a change from "Total Points," which was used above)
Strength of opponent = -opponent's ATP/WTA ranking
Sets Lost = -100 per

Does this work?  Almost certainly not (for example, the current Rankings would have Berdych defeating Nadal if they were to play each other, and we all know that will never happen).  But for some reason I am enjoying doing it anyways.  Thanks for your interest, Edu.

-Arvis

Last edited by Arvis (Jan. 20, 2014 2:27pm)

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Thanks for clarifying that for me Arvis, it seems like doing it round-by-round we can get a better idea of how is the player's momentum in that particularly point of the tournament. It also can help us to make a better decision in the match predictions.

That is a great idea, and I like the name because is the same as in the NFL smile

2019: AO Yoda Cup, Obi Wan, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Performance of the Year, Year End #3
2018: Obi Wan, Rey Saber, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Most correct picks Award, Year End #2.
2017: BB-8 Cup, Year End #4. 2016: Padme Cup, RG Yoda Cup, Leia Tiara, Trophy Case Award, Rey Saber runner up, Year End #3.
2015: Lando Calrissian's Ring, GQ "The Green Anackin".

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Very interesting Arvis.  Though Simona has a -1 and you still have her in the SF?

20 Queen Droid & BB-8 Cup Wimbledon 14 US Open Yoda Cup16 Wimbledon 14 French Open Alpha Cup12, 13 & 16
King Droid 15 Naboo Cup 14 Lord Vader- RU

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Simona is facing Cibulkova who has a -62. wink

I just updated the Predictions with % chance to win.  I actually factored head-to-head on these, which actually changed the Berdych prediction into a non-pick, 50/50 coin flip.

Wasn't sure what to do with the Ivanovic/Bouchard pick, as their H2H contains only one match and is not indicative of a pattern between the players.  I think maybe a minimum of 3 matches played is required to factor in H2H.

Edu_Anackin wrote:

It also can help us to make a better decision in the match predictions.

I wouldn't make match picks based on this if I were you. wink
But I DO think that it can help to get an idea if a player is "winning ugly" or is really in dominant form.  And that knowledge can be a factor in picking.  But it shouldn't be the only factor.

-Arvis

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Arvis wrote:

I wouldn't make match picks based on this if I were you. wink
But I DO think that it can help to get an idea if a player is "winning ugly" or is really in dominant form.  And that knowledge can be a factor in picking.  But it shouldn't be the only factor.

-Arvis

that is what I meant

2019: AO Yoda Cup, Obi Wan, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Performance of the Year, Year End #3
2018: Obi Wan, Rey Saber, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Most correct picks Award, Year End #2.
2017: BB-8 Cup, Year End #4. 2016: Padme Cup, RG Yoda Cup, Leia Tiara, Trophy Case Award, Rey Saber runner up, Year End #3.
2015: Lando Calrissian's Ring, GQ "The Green Anackin".

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Flavia Pennetta's high ranking turned out to be a bust. I applaud you for trying a formula to try to predict wins though. I love algorithms and all that stuff. smile

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Yep.  A bit of a quirk that the two highest ranked players faced off, but Pennetta didn't even make it interesting.

Let's see how the rest of these go.

-Arvis

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

UPDATED

Stats don't seem to be reliable predictors of winners so far.  Not that the formula I threw together is at all comprehensive.  I am sure I am not accurately valuing the relative importance of each stat.

-Arvis

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

UPDATED

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

I was 6 of 8 on my SF predictions big_smile 75%
My Final predictions are the same as Arvis except for Federer, I WANT him to win but I don't think he will get past Nadal

Last edited by Johnny_Incognito (Jan. 22, 2014 11:41am)

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Johnny_Incognito wrote:

I don't think he will get past Nadal

I don't think anybody does.  I don't even think Federer thinks he will get past Nadal.

-Arvis

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

I think he thinks he can get this one. Rafa will be the overwelming favorite, pressure is on him, not Roger.

2016: Rey Saber, Lord Vader, Supreme Jedi, Yoda Crew player of the year
2014: Lord Vader, King Droid, Naboo Champion, Yoda Crew player of the year
2013: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion, Yoda Cup Guru Runner-up
2012: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Raf has some really bad blisters that can not feel good at all.

20 Queen Droid & BB-8 Cup Wimbledon 14 US Open Yoda Cup16 Wimbledon 14 French Open Alpha Cup12, 13 & 16
King Droid 15 Naboo Cup 14 Lord Vader- RU

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Yes, but that's a good thing.. right? wink

2016: Rey Saber, Lord Vader, Supreme Jedi, Yoda Crew player of the year
2014: Lord Vader, King Droid, Naboo Champion, Yoda Crew player of the year
2013: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion, Yoda Cup Guru Runner-up
2012: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

I haven't seen Roger hit that backhand so well and consistently in a LONG time, so if he can keep it up, maybe he has a chance. Another thing, Nadal doesn't a blister in his hand, he has a hand in his blister kkkkkk

2019: AO Yoda Cup, Obi Wan, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Performance of the Year, Year End #3
2018: Obi Wan, Rey Saber, R2D2 Crown, C3PO Trophy, Most correct picks Award, Year End #2.
2017: BB-8 Cup, Year End #4. 2016: Padme Cup, RG Yoda Cup, Leia Tiara, Trophy Case Award, Rey Saber runner up, Year End #3.
2015: Lando Calrissian's Ring, GQ "The Green Anackin".

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Adunar wrote:

I think he thinks he can get this one. Rafa will be the overwelming favorite, pressure is on him, not Roger.

There is a reason why he is the overwhelming favorite though!

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

Jolivegarden wrote:
Adunar wrote:

I think he thinks he can get this one. Rafa will be the overwelming favorite, pressure is on him, not Roger.

There is a reason why he is the overwhelming favorite though!

It has something to do with the numbers 10 and 22, I think.  Not sure.

-Arvis

Re: Australian Open Power Rankings

UPDATED

In his QF match, Wawrinka won less points than Djokovic, but won the match.  Against Berdych, he won only 1 more point, but won in 4 sets.  Berdych had as much chance to win as Wawa, but succumbed to nerves in tiebreakers, serving up very untimely DFs.

Want to talk about consistency?  Li Na's three Power Ratings since the 4th round: 256, 267, and 268.

In Cibulkova's utter annihilation of Radwanska, the two players actually had the exact same amount of Break Point opportunities: 9.  The difference was that, while Aggie converted just 1, Cibulkova converted 6.

-Arvis