Topic: The US Open starts soon...

Well, this has become a habit!

The US Open begins on Monday and the draw will be out in two days, on Thursday.
As Tony posted on his blog, Roger and Novak are the oustanding favorites. They have dominated the hard court season this summer whereas Murray has struggled a bit after his Gold Medal effort in London.

Roger couldn't be in a better position. He's my fovorite.
Novak is right behind, great preparation, his game is fine right now, better than during the grass court season.
Murray seems tired but we know he plays well at slams, it's hard to bet against a SF for him.

delPo seems the best outsider. He's playing well, has a good record here and is not afraid of the best players. His wrist worries me a bit though. The draw would be well balanced if he fells in Ferrer's quarter.

Ferrer, Berdych are not in a strong form but can reach a QF with a good draw I think. Tsonga and Tipsarevic are maybe more reliable on fast hard courts and could get a safe run to the Quarterfinals.

Isner, Raonic are two deadly-servers that everybody wants to avoid.
Wawrinka and Gasquet are two great backhands that cold threaten any top10 player but the top 3.

As for the 17-32 seeds, Americans Oldies Fish and Roddick are always good contenders as well as maybe Querrey who's in decent form lately. Chardy has had strong showings lately and should not be underestimated (has beaten Tsonga, Murray!). Veteran Tommy Haas is also capable of ousting a seed or two.

For the unseeded players, Anderson, Stepanek, Nalbandian or a rejuvenated Hewitt or Davydenko can do some damage.

Who do you think will go far this year? Any clue? any name for a BIG upset (either the upsetter or the upset). Which big seed is bowing out early?

By the way, the US Open Bracket Challenge is open, should we create a league?

Last edited by Adunar (Aug. 22, 2012 2:08am)

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Fantastic write up.

Yes, Roger and Novak are the obvious choices, but DO NOT COUNT OUT Andy Murray.  His entire season has been building up to this tournament.  Semifinal epic against Novak in Australia.  Finalist of Wimbledon.  Singles Gold Medal at the Olympics.  It's all been slowly building to..... Andy Murray's FIRST Grand Slam victory at the 2012 US Open!  If he plays up to his form, this is a strong possibility.  If he doesn't, he's basically always a lock to make the 2nd week in any Slam.  Murray should be on everybody's team with Roger and Novak.

As for the rest of the Top 16-ers, I say out of all them, Tipsarevic is the guy I am looking at as the most likely to bust up his section of the draw.  But it depends on who he gets in his section.
Kei Nishikori has also had huge success here in the past and is at his fittest ever.  This is his chance to be seen as a legitimate contender rather than a dangerous floater.  Keep an eye on him.

The 17-32 players have a person who I think is building up to another 2nd week run at this tournament: Stan Wawrinka.  His play in Cincinnati was gold, and if he keeps playing to that level, he could beat anybody (except Roger, of course).

I'm not sure which Top 10 seed will go out early, but I think Ferrer and Berdych are prime candidates.

-Arvis

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Yep, I like your summary too. Ferrer and Berdych are likely to suffer an early exit and Murray should definitely be in everyone's team for sure. Fish has found a good form lately and could benefit from a nice draw.

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Some astute comments there guys....Arnaud asked about the US Open bracket challenge, are we running the Obi Wan Cannoli again this year then??
Maybe I should post it in the Yoda Cup room so then everyone can get the heads up on it, I think Don still has the link all set up from last year. hmm

Last edited by Tono (Aug. 22, 2012 2:52pm)

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Yeah, I thought about Mardy after I posted that.  He could REALLY be someone to keep an eye on.  He'll be match fit AND rested going in, and he has the game to trouble any player.  Would love to see him have a career-defining tournament here.

As for the Cannoli, I am all for it!  But admittedly less stoked about it now that The Chewie Medal exists.

-Arvis

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Good point Arvis....now that we have Chewie do we need to have the Cannoli?

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Well it doesn't make much sense, I agree.

What about Gasquet?

THE Draw will be out tomorrow at noon ET so 6pm for me. Very nice! I'll try to follow it live.

Last edited by Adunar (Aug. 22, 2012 4:08pm)

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Why not play the pastry, we double dip with the Masters.  I guess it all depends on the pastry chef. 

I finally went to the US Open - for the first day of qualies monday.  Loved it!

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Gah! I am so jealous!!

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Oh nice Thomas smile

Who did you see in action?

By the way, the draw ceremony starts in 40 minutes, live on usopen.org (for free?)

Last edited by Adunar (Aug. 23, 2012 10:20am)

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Here are the seeds and expected 3rd rounds:

1    R.Federer
25    F.Verdasco
23    M.Fish
16    G.Simon
11    N.Almagro
22    F.Mayer
27    S.Querrey
6    T.Berdych
3    A.Murray
30    F.Lopez
24    M.Granollers
15    M.Raonic
12    M.Cilic
17    K.Nishikori
32    J.Chardy
5    JW.Tsonga
8    J.Tipsarevic
29    V.Troicki
19    P.Kohlschreiber
9    J.Isner
13    R.Gasquet
21    T.Haas
28    M.Youzhny
4    D.Ferrer
7    JM.Del Potro
26    A.Seppi
20    A.Roddick
10    J.Monaco
14    A.Dolgopolov
18    S.Wawrinka
31    J.Benneteau
2    N.Djokovic

DelPo-Nalbandian 1st round!!!

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

I didn't get there until 4-5 pm.  I saw the last games for Rhyne Williams-Vasek Pospisil.  I saw Julie Coin-Magdalena Rybarikova; I saw some of Rosol-Capkovic (I love the new court 17), saw some of Jimmy Wang-Federico Delbonis, Devilder, Mannarino, and Garcia-Brianti. 

I'm going later today, I really want to see Ricardas Berankis, he plays Robert Farah.  Also want to see Dustin Brown-Tim Smyczek.  I have some others that I want to see, if I get there in time.

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Very nice matches Thomas,  I hope you enjoy it! smile

So let's analyze a bit this draw, in the Tony fashion ;-)

1st quarter, Federer: "The road to get in shape for the super saturday".
Three easy round to get in shape and then a poatentially tricky one against Fish who's in a decent form.
Berdych in the quarters... if the Czech gets there. It seems he's finding back his rhythm a little but not that sure he will make it, there's also Almagro. What about Almagro's shoulder? Stepanek as a 1st round is very tricky, the Czech is good at the US Open. Tough to predict who could face the Swiss in the QF. I'm picking Federer beats Berdych though I'm not sure the Czech will get there...

2nd quarter, Murray: "The Everest mountain for his 1st GS glory"
tough wuarter for the Scot. heshould easily get past Bogomolov but lost to him last year in March. A good Lopez can be a tough one but he should easily get to the fourth round where he could meet Raonic if the Canadian gets rid of Mathieu and Granollers. Then there is Tsonga. Tough eighth. Cilic and Nishikori could meet in a classy 3rd round before playing Tsonga. Tsonga has Chardy in his 3rd round. Chardy has been playing great this summer and has beaten Tsonga in Toronto, so the Top Frenchman might have to dig deep to get to the 4th round and then against Cilic and Nishikori for a place in the QF. The Japanese has beaten Tsonga at the AO and is good on hard courts, Watch out for him. I'm picking either a close five setter between Murray and Tsonga or an easy victory for Murray against Nishikori or Cilic.

3rd quarter, Ferrer: "The weaky quarter: opened to any surprise"
Maybe the "easy quarter". Tipsarevic should get to the 4th round where he could meet Isner or Kohlschreiber. Isner has the potential to reach the QF. His problem is to avoid the looong matches he's used to. Fortunately for him, there is a fifth set tie-break here. Ferrer has a tricky draw with Anderson (1st), then Hewitt or Youzhny (3rd) before Gasquet or Haas in the 4th round. Tough task for Ferrer who hasn't shown his best lately. But his quarter is a great opportunity for him to reach a second US Open SF. I'm going to take som risk and bet on Isner for this quarter though I admit he could bow out at ANY round. Ferrer could be a "safe" pick though Haas and Gasquet could trouble him.

4th quarter, Djokovic: "easy go, easy go..."
Let's be honest, Novak's first three round are poor. Stan or the Dog can both annoy him in the 4th round but I don't think they can actually beat him. In the QF, he should meet DelPo. Problem? Delpo's wrist. Will it hold? The Argentinian must first beat his friend and compatriot Nalbandian, tough task. If he gets past that first round, there's no reason he should be annoyed my Monaco or Roddick. Novak-DelPo could be a BEAUTY Delpo's wrist holds on. Maybe the match of the tournament. I expect Novak to get through though.

So if Federer should easily get to the SF, Murray might get some problems along the road. If this dream SF happens, not only will it be a beautiful contest, but it could also determine the winner. As the SF are both played on Saturday and the final on Sunday, I don't think Federer can beat Murray in a long match and then Novak the next day in the final. I think Federer has shown he's so good on hard courts and I expect him to win whoever is accross the net. He will NOT suffer another dramatic SF loss to ANYBODY.
Novak could meet either a tired Isner (after 2 five-setters in a row, don't expect him to be fit) and lost one tie-break but that's it. Neither Tipsy or Ferrer could take him a set. So if Novak beats Delpo, he's almsot in the Final.

So if my predictions are correct, we will have our dream final. King Roger vs Defending Champ Novak. This would be their 6th consecutive meeting at the US Open. I expect this match to be long, very long and to be a fifth set tie-breaker thriller. But this time, it will go on Roger's side with a couple of match points saved. He deserve it this time. This might be the best US Open final ever. Ever.

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Nice summary there Adunar.....the third quarter is certainly open for someone to enjoy a deep run but just who that someone is will be a good talking point throughout the Championships I think....although Murray is the favourite I think the second quarter could easily produce a surprise too especially if Andy doesn't hit top form before the 2nd week, most people will be picking Fed and Nole to win through I suspect but Berdych and Delpo have the necessary firepower to cause the boilover, the BIG question though is will they?
Looking forward to another great two weeks of tennis! big_smile

@theswiftest : Isner certainly has a good chance to go deep again this year, Fish and Querrey have been playing pretty well and I'm guessing you might like the chances of A-Rod because of his draw too, it will be interesting to see how they all go, at least one of them should make the quarters I reckon.

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

theswiftest wrote:

I'm rarely a patriot when it comes to tennis, which i why it felt strange to put so many Americans as my picks. What do you guys think about the US's chances this year? I feel like John Isner can take down Tipsarevic and Ferrer for a semi.

Isner, Querrey, Fish, and Blake are all good picks. Roddick is not.

Btw everyone, I am out of town and won't be at my PC until tonight or tomorrow, so any posts from me will be seldom and short.
Can't wait to put my team together!

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Blake a good pick? Naaah come on Arvis, don't start going down that road ;-)

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Well he's won like one hard court match in five tournaments. Sorry, not sure he's worth it in a GSFT competition right now...

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Adunar wrote:

Blake a good pick? Naaah come on Arvis, don't start going down that road ;-)

Blake is unseeded, has more than enough game to upset some people, and has a really soft first round. Not a bad Unseeded pick at all. Are there any Unseeded picks that are OBVIOUSLY better than Blake? Karlovic, Belucci, Hewitt... what am I not seeing?
Blake vs. Lacko in Rd 1 should keep you from getting a -16, and that can be considered a success.

Yeah, he could always tank (as Blake is often wont to do) but that's a risk you take with any Unseeded player. They're unseeded for a reason.

Last edited by Arvis (Aug. 24, 2012 1:40pm)

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Great to read all your opinions and summaries, Ferrer I think is a safe choice to the fourth round, how far he goes from there is the question. One player I would like to see do well is Tommy Robredo, hopefully he is fit enough to see him through a couple of rounds,although he could go down in the first round, pity he wasn't in the 3rd quarter, he may have been worth a look as an unseeded pick. Anyway, I have thought long and hard about who will win this years tournament, the mens will be a cracker, John McEnroe to win over Ivan Lendl in another classic match up between the two. For the women I have gone for Tracey Austin to surprise Martina Navratilova in 3 sets.

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Hi! For the unseeded players, I don't think Blake is the best choice? He hasn't been playing well, with first, second, third round exits for the past few tournaments. Although I guess as long as it's not a first round loss. Any other options? Racking my brains here.

Does anyone have Chardy on their team? I went out on a limb and put him in instead of Tsonga. He's been playing so well lately! But it's a huge risk because I'm forgoing Tsonga. Any thoughts?

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Plus Chardy just beat Tsonga at Toronto

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Yeah, Chardy would have been THE best possible unseeded player. Unfortunately, he's seeded 32. I honestly don't think he can beat Tsonga in a best of five format. Plus, in Toronto, Tsonga was tired from the olympics (singles AND doubles). He's played decently in Winston Salem and I think he's ready for the US Open.

The unseeded player is very difficult to choose in this draw as there is no real "weak" 8th... the best unseeded players have tough first round opponents so it's hard to tell. You can either pick a safe unseeded who'll at least win the 2st round knowing that he won't go much further. Or you take a risk to take a -16 in the first round but that could easily become a 4th round if he wins. Tough one anyway.

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Re: The US Open starts soon...

Chardy should win two matches, but for him to beat a MOTIVATED Tsonga in a Best-of-5 format is a very different task from beating the Tsonga that showed up in Toronto.

Still, Chardy isn't a bad 17-32 pick.  And Tsonga is ever unreliable, so picking someone from his 1/8 of the draw is always a decent strategy.

-Arvis

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Like every slam so far this year I was away from any computer this past weekend but luckily since its in my time zone I was able to stay up all last night until I was done. Work is going to suck today. I found this draw really difficult on both the mens and womens side. Those unseeded choices were slim. Adunar hit it on the head with his assessment.

Good to be back btw.

Re: The US Open starts soon...

Hey All! Excited for another grand slam and our fantasy tennis predictions. It's always been fun reading your predictions and analysis of the draws and making my own predictions, and it's been a way my dad and I have been able to enjoy the tournaments together from long distance.

The fact that the Olympics was played in-between Wimbledon and the normal hard court US Open tune-up season does skew things a bit, I think.  It's a lot of tennis, and so it may be that the players who rested and did not get much hard court practice may have more in the tank during the US Open, while others who were very active and did well after the Olympics may be burnt out sooner.  I hope this will not be the case for Isner, for instance, especially since I think he has a good opportunity in this draw to make the semis, and from there ... who knows?  Fatigue was a factor in some of the warm-ups as well, such as in Tsonga's loss to Chardy recently in Toronto (though Chardy is in good form).  Berdych's run to the final in Winston-Salem should rest doubts on his current form, but Goffin is a tough first round opponent.  I am more worried about Ferrer's current form, and his draw is not very hopeful (I don't think he is a "safe" pick at all in other words).  There are a lot of tennis experts which are predicting a first-round upset from Anderson, and even if he gets past Anderson, he may face an inspired Hewitt (or someone with a great track record at the US Open in Youzhny), and then he would face an in-form Gasquet or resurgent Haas, two of the hottest players playing right now, and then Isner, who just won Winston-Salem and came 2nd in the entire US Open series may very well be waiting for him in the quarters ... if he survives all that!!

But I am taking my own risks too in my team: I am betting that Del Po's wrist is fine and that he will continue his recent great form in the big tournaments and get past Nalbandian to make a deep run in this Open.  In any case, that first round match may be a fantastic one.  Though Nalbandian has always been one of my favorite players, I am hoping my risk will pay off!!