Topic: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

So...what are your teams and what changes are good or not so good so far

ATP
1 Andy
2 Nole
3 Fed
4 Rafa
10 A Zverev (replaced him for 7 Cilic)

18 RBA
19 Lopez (replaced Nick and then Gasquet)

Rublev (replaced Shapalov and Tipsy)

***Cilic...Reeshard and Tipsy are my SWC...glad I got rid of Nick and Shapo) wink

WTA
3 Pliskova
7 Sveta (replaced Konta)
10 Venus
11 Kvitova
14 Mugu
***my lowest picks of the top five

18 Sevastova
19 Bacs

Kontaveit (replaced Barty)

Last edited by Backhandpass (Jul. 3, 2017 10:03pm)

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Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

I had Bedene before I picked Vesely. I thought Bedene could beat Dr. Ivo but I wasn't that sold, so I went with Vesely. The rest of my team is what it is. I didn't think of replacing Stan, Kyrgios or Lisicki. I had Murray beating Fed but changed that at the 11th hour as well. That's it.

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Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Aiur wrote:

I had Bedene before I picked Vesely. I thought Bedene could beat Dr. Ivo but I wasn't that sold, so I went with Vesely. The rest of my team is what it is. I didn't think of replacing Stan, Kyrgios or Lisicki. I had Murray beating Fed but changed that at the 11th hour as well. That's it.

You may be on to something with Konta...she hit her head at the last tournament so didn't know if she be scrambled eggs or what...but she looked good first rd. You have her as your winner...I left her off completely. We both agree on Sevastova. GO SEVA!

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Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

LOL this thread the one year I DON'T make any changes.

I was going to put Strycova and Kuznetsova on my team instead of Venus and Bacs.  We'll see what happens there, I guess.

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

I moved Venus out and Strycova in pretty late on......

I also moved Svitolina in at the same time which, in retrospect was very rash! I was rushed on a dodgy Spanish connection and I overlooked the Barty match up!! I could do with more random lucky breaks like that!!!

Last edited by Drivers (Jul. 4, 2017 6:37am)

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2018:-Ruby Droid and Jar Jar Dartboard Champ.

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Svitolina is a bad idea at Wimbledon even without a Barty in the first round.  VERY lucky!  Maybe Elina will have figured out grass for you this year, Drivers. smile

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Arvis wrote:

Svitolina is a bad idea at Wimbledon even without a Barty in the first round.  VERY lucky!  Maybe Elina will have figured out grass for you this year, Drivers. smile

Yes, definitely a dumb move!

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2018:-Ruby Droid and Jar Jar Dartboard Champ.

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

I didn't say THAT.  Svitolina has one of the best W/L records on tour this year.  She's capable of making a run.

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Arvis wrote:

I didn't say THAT.  Svitolina has one of the best W/L records on tour this year.  She's capable of making a run.


....to pick her when she faces Barty in the first round is not a smart move.... smile

2016:-Diamond Droid and Captain Plasma Helmet Champ.
2018:-Ruby Droid and Jar Jar Dartboard Champ.

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Well looks like your Lopez pick helped you avoid a bullet there, BHP.
I made far fewer changes than I usually do. I nearly went Barty or Watson as a 2nd unseeded, but in the end went more conservatively and chose Safarova (aka Shavashova)

2018 Roland Garros Yoda Cup, Year End #3
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Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Yeah, BHP removing Nick AND Gasquet was amazing.  GO BHP!

I know some people have said otherwise, but that's not how you pronounce Safarova.  Not sure how that became a thing, but even some journalists have said that's how she pronounces it.  But she doesn't.  The "r" is not pronounced like "sh".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW-ZkJn-dWc

Feeling pedantic today (probably because of REEshard).

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

I REALLY wanted to choose Konjuh instead of Coco but we'll see how that works out for me.  Otherwise maybe Krystina Pliskova instead of Watson.

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

ATP

1.    Murray
2.    Djokovic
3.    Federer
4.    Nadal
7.    Cilic (Was between Cilic and Raonic)
19.  Lopez
22.  Gasquet
       Vesely (Over Rublev and Simon)

Subbed in Gasquet for Kyrgios last minute since I wasn't sold on Kyrgios' health. The decision looked great yesterday, not as great today. I stand by it though, Ferrer had done nothing all year and didn't seem like a threat on grass, past h2h not withstanding. He played well in London/Eastbourne and I thought he had a decent chance to make QF in Thiem's section if he got by Berdych but alas.

WTA

2.    Halep
3.    Pliskova
10.  V.Williams
11.  Kvitova
14.  Muguruza (Late minute sub in for Konta)
24.  Vandeweghe
32.  Safarova (Over Keys, Sevastova)
       Kontaveit

Building the women's team was tough this year, especially with the seedings really not reflecting the strength of players, the draw was weird. Only top seeds I really liked were Pliskova, Venus and Petra.

Konta was tough to read, her game seems like it should translate well to grass and she's played well at other grass tournaments but her Wimbledon record is terrible and the injury from Eastbourne left me with too much uncertainty. She looked good yesterday and I wouldn't be shocked if she got past Kvitova in R4 and made a run.

Muguruza made me the most nervous, potentially tough 1R against Alexandrova and got killed by Strycova in Eastbourne. I just felt like someone has to come out of that Top Quarter and I trust her over Kerber/Safarova/Kuznetsova/Radwanska.

Sevastova was a solid pick and I liked her a lot before the draw came out. I backed off since her draw is tough (In-form Watson in R2 followed by Vika in R3). If she gets to the 4R, I'd actually like her odds vs. Halep but her draw scarred me off.

Last edited by Marco19 (Jul. 4, 2017 1:15pm)

2018: Guru Race Winner (2019 Yoda Cup Guru), Australian Open Yoda Cup Champion, Wimbledon Yoda Cup Champion, Yoda Crew Best Newcomer

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

OriginalZygote wrote:

I REALLY wanted to choose Konjuh instead of Coco but we'll see how that works out for me.  Otherwise maybe Krystina Pliskova instead of Watson.

I liked Konjuh but was scarred off by the matchup with Lisicki, I had no idea where her level here would be so it was a stay away for me. Now that she's through I like her odds to make 2nd week.

2018: Guru Race Winner (2019 Yoda Cup Guru), Australian Open Yoda Cup Champion, Wimbledon Yoda Cup Champion, Yoda Crew Best Newcomer

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Arvis wrote:

Yeah, BHP removing Nick AND Gasquet was amazing.  GO BHP!

I know some people have said otherwise, but that's not how you pronounce Safarova.  Not sure how that became a thing, but even some journalists have said that's how she pronounces it.  But she doesn't.  The "r" is not pronounced like "sh".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW-ZkJn-dWc

Feeling pedantic today (probably because of REEshard).

Shaafaarzhoovah

2018 Roland Garros Yoda Cup, Year End #3
2017 Obi Wan Master, Wimbledon Yoda Cup, Year End #2, Yoda Crew Player of the Year
2016 Obi Wan Master, Year End #2
2015 Lord Vader, Roland Garros Yoda Cup

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Welcome to the forums, Marco!

Incidentally, I just remembered that I had Bianca Andreescu on my team for about 5 minutes at one point.  Removed her for Bacsinszky.

Last edited by Arvis (Jul. 4, 2017 2:22pm)

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Marco19 wrote:
OriginalZygote wrote:

I REALLY wanted to choose Konjuh instead of Coco but we'll see how that works out for me.  Otherwise maybe Krystina Pliskova instead of Watson.

I liked Konjuh but was scarred off by the matchup with Lisicki, I had no idea where her level here would be so it was a stay away for me. Now that she's through I like her odds to make 2nd week.

I agree sir!

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Arvis wrote:

Welcome to the forums, Marco!

Incidentally, I just remembered that I had Bianca Andreescu on my team for about 5 minutes at one point.  Removed her for Bacsinszky.

Thanks Arvis! Been making teams for every slam since 2014 but happy to venture into the forum!

Nice call on Bacsinszky, hard to read her since she'd been pretty quiet before her RG run but she's in a soft section so the potential is definitely there for her to get to the 2nd week

2018: Guru Race Winner (2019 Yoda Cup Guru), Australian Open Yoda Cup Champion, Wimbledon Yoda Cup Champion, Yoda Crew Best Newcomer

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

sneaky wrote:

With the benefit of hindsight......it is now easy to say that Lisicki
was NOT prepared to play Wimbledon with few matches!!!

Konjuh had an advantage going into the match but most fans
refused to acknowledge that......all they saw was Lisicki 's
excellent results from the past!!! Maybe humans are wired to
live too much in the past and not enough in the present!!!

I don't think one could've just written off Lisicki. Big server on a fast grass court, a lot of boom or bust potential. She did alright in her first tournament back in Mallorca getting to the QFs. Lisicki is one of those players who if she is on, with her serve and power game on a grass court can take the racket out of your hand.

I agree to an extent with your point on past performance but in Lisicki's case, with almost no data points in 2017 to go on, you have to fallback on the data you have. The analogy isn't perfect but the same logic could apply to an extent to Azarenka, another 27yr old who only played a few matches in Mallorca before playing another talented young player in Bellis and won in 3.

Vika is obviously a better player with a much higher ceiling and coming back from pregnancy rather than injuries but in both cases a person making the decision on a veteran coming back after only playing few matches, based mostly on past performance, would've gotten different results.

When making my picks, I usually try to get someone I feel relatively certain about for my low seeds, I'd rather have someone I trust to get safely to R3 than someone who may have a better shot at R4 but is more likely to lose R1 and earn negative points. Someone like Konjuh was favored over Lisicki (I actually had her making 4R in my bracket) but her upset potential in R1 was too high for my liking since I didn't feel there was enough data to be confident which version of Lisicki would show up. Just my own opinion though and I admit I tend to be rather risk adverse in my picks where you may make your selections differently.

2018: Guru Race Winner (2019 Yoda Cup Guru), Australian Open Yoda Cup Champion, Wimbledon Yoda Cup Champion, Yoda Crew Best Newcomer

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Ieieieie... do I want to relive this?

The men's team was always pretty stable for me, the women however...

Men's team started out
1 Murray
2 Djokovic
3 Federer
4 Nadal
7 Cilic
19 FLopez
20 Kyrgios
u KAnderson

Didn't take me long to ditch Kyrgios for Gasquet - since I thought RG had a nice draw that would be weakened by the loss of Thiem and Berdych - I was painting Reeshard into the QF... call me wrong, wrong, wrong... at least it cost me nothing with Kyrgios also losing... so I was equally dumb twice smile

Then I chickened out on Big-Kev when I saw him playing the volatile Verdasco in 1R with Wawrinka nearby, preferring instead Simon.  That may prove to be a wash... but now I definitely like Anderson's draw with Wawrinka out of the way, whereas Simon plays Thiem next.  Out-smarted myself again...

I also strongly debated replacing Murray or Cilic with Tsonga.  And lastly it was close to a toss-up if I should put Nadal or Cilic into the final.  I figured more people would have Nadal (probably a safer pick) but Cilic might be a game-changer if things got close.

Of course, now, with three -16's  the only thing I'm close to is the bottom!

So I ended up with

1 Murray
2 Djokovic
3 Federer
4 Nadal
7 Cilic
19 FLopez
22 Gasquet
u Simon


For the women I needed a heavy dose of Percocet...

First blush was:

3 KaPliskova
6 Konta
10 VWilliams
11 Kvitova
14 Muguruza
u Barty
u Lisicki
u Azarenka

In addition to those 8, at various times I had Halep, ARadwanska, Ostapenko, Vesnina, Vandeweghe, Kontaveit filling a slot.  For the longest time my team was

3 KaPliskova
9 ARadwanska
10 VWilliams
11 Kvitova
14 Muguruza
24 Vandeweghe
u Barty
u Azarenka

But then at the last minute I swapped out ARadwanska for Ostapenko and Azarenka for Kontaveit.  Of course I should have kept Azarenka and ditched Barty - it was always going to be high risk against Svitolina, but then I figured Azarenka vs Bellis was even higher risk...

Live and learn...

Last edited by dwightcharles (Jul. 4, 2017 4:12pm)

2017 Supreme Jedi, 2017 Lord Vader, 2017 Chivalrous Wookie, 2015 Naboo Champion, 2018 Big Fat Nothing

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

OMG!!!

Why is ARad still on my team instead of Ostapenko??
I could have sworm I swapped Ostapenko in 2 hours before play started!?!

I must be getting old...! smile

2017 Supreme Jedi, 2017 Lord Vader, 2017 Chivalrous Wookie, 2015 Naboo Champion, 2018 Big Fat Nothing

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Most guys are picking the Top 4 because based on the data we have going in, they seem to be better bets than the  alternatives. It's not a belief that they will never lose or that they're no chance of them losing, just that there's a lesser chance of them losing than the alternatives. Could a player like Cilic (who I think is the most likely potential non-Big 4 winner at Wimbledon) get hot and tear through the draw. Absolutely. But it's more likely to be one of those 4, who in best of 5 are more reliable, have won every Wimbledon since 2003, are still probably the 4 best players in Bo5 (without taking surface into account).

Taking risk is fun but the point isn't to take a risk just for the sake of taking a risk. If you want to build a team with more guys who could pull an upset, say a Top 5 of Federer/Djokovic/Raonic/Cilic/Zverev (as one example) you're more than welcome to. If you had done this strategy say the last few years, you'd hit big once in a while (say 2014 US Open) but more often than not, you'd lose to the more consistent teams building around the Big 4 and consistently are making SF/F/W.

If you legitimately believe that Cilic/Zverev/Raonic or whoever is going to win or make the final, by all means, pick them. I even understand backing an outsider if you think that there's a good enough chance of it happening and you'll be rewarded by hitting a finalist/winner when no one else did. But just doing it for the sake of taking a risk doesn't make sense to me. I could easily see Federer (my pick) losing and would say the odds of him not winning are greater than the odds of him winning. But I think his odds are better than any outside guys (Cilic/Raonic/Zverev) and IMHO, he's a safer bet to reach QF/SF/F than any of them, so to me here it wouldn't make sense to pick against him, even though I could logic one of those 3 winning (mainly Cilic)

@Sneaky. I'm curious who you ended up picking for your team besides Tipsarevic, if you wouldn't mind sharing. Enjoying the debate btw, so apologizes if it seems like I'm going after you a lot here.

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Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

I left Murray and Novak off my team and THAT my friends will be the reason I will be in the top half of the leaderboard in a couple days smile

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

Poor Johnny sad

Told you you should have picked Watson, btw.  Where the heck did you even get Broady from anyways?  I gave you like 12 possibilities and she was definitely not one of them.

Re: shoulda woulda coulda or changes to my team I may regret

TennisElbow wrote:

Well looks like your Lopez pick helped you avoid a bullet there, BHP.
I made far fewer changes than I usually do. I nearly went Barty or Watson as a 2nd unseeded, but in the end went more conservatively and chose Safarova (aka Shavashova)


lol all three went out first rd...Feli included.

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12, 13 & 16 King Droid
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