Topic: Federer v Nadal

As much as I want to say Roger will win, I don't even think he really has a chance. Nadal has improved his serve to the backhand of right-handers, and Roger has never done well against it to begin with. I think the only chance he has is if he stands inside the baseline to take away the angle on that serve, but IDK if he will be confident enough to do it. It also doesn't really bode well for Roger that Dimitrov played the match of his life and still lost, given how similar their style of play is.

Nadal in 4.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Well here are som stats of Roger vs Rafa

11-23 overall
2-9 at the slams
2-6 in GS finals
0-3 at the Australian Open
7-14 in finals
7-9 on hard courts
8-5 for Roger on "fast" courts (ether "fast" hard, grass or indoors)
1-3 on "fast" hard courts outdoors
10-11 in tie-breaks

Records in GS finals:
17-10 vs 14-6

Records in AO final:
4-1 vs 1-2

Record at the Australian open:
86-13 (86.9%) vs 51-10 (83.6%)

In the Only Australian Open final they played, Rafa won in five though Roger dominated the first four sets. I the end, Roger won one more point than Rafa that year. This was a heart breaking loss for Roger and a kind of "lucky" win for Rafa though he fought very hard for that and nobody can take it away from him, he deserved it. That final was played on a rather slow surface. The surface is faster this year.

2017 Australian Open campaign:

Roger: 23 sets played (lost 5 sets), 13h37 on court, 1-1 in tie-breaks
Rafa: 23 sets played (lost 5 sets), 18h56 on court, 2-2 in tie-breaks


History of their confrontations shows Rafa as a clear favorite. But there are many signs that Roger will have a great opportunity. And Rafa has spent 5h22 more on court. At 30 years old, this may be a larger difference than it used to be.

Last edited by Adunar (Jan. 28, 2017 5:29am)

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Auir, I agree. My heart is telling me Roger, but my head is telling me Nadal.

Last edited by Wimbledonut (Jan. 28, 2017 6:05am)

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Adunar, Those are great stats. Even though Nadal has been on the court for 5+ hours, I still give him the edge. I think he is in Federer's head, and Federer still cannot solve it when Nadal hits a penetrating crosscourt topspin forehand to Federer's backhand. Even though Nadal has loss some sting and consistency on that shot, he still used the same tactic against Grigor with great success. Nadal in 4.

Last edited by Wimbledonut (Jan. 28, 2017 6:07am)

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Great success?? Hmm he really almost lost. Rafa's topspin forehand is not as it used to be.

What worries me the most is the psychology. As you said, Rafa is in Roger's head. But the last times they played Roger really tried something else. Conbined with faster courts, this is doable.

But still, 55-60% chances Rafa wins.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Good points. I completely agree that Nadal's forehand isn't what it used to be. If that were the case. he might have beat Grigor in 3 or 4 sets.

Last edited by Wimbledonut (Jan. 28, 2017 7:44am)

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Re: Federer v Nadal

I think the crowd will be pulling for Fed.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Me too but not than much. People love Rafa as well. Great person, great story. They respect him a lot too but I expect the crowd to be in favor of Roger, yes.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Feddy just needs to go out and have fun playing tennis.

Re: Federer v Nadal

I just want to Fed to play well, that's all. What really pisses me off is when he plays poorly knowing that he can play better.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Arvis, did you post on Tennis.com recently on an article about Fed and Nadal? http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2017/01/ … atp/63765/
If so, I responded to you. If not, there's another Arvis out there who likes tennis.

Last edited by Wimbledonut (Jan. 28, 2017 2:09pm)

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Re: Federer v Nadal

LOL, Wimby, yeah, that's me!  Almost anywhere you see an Arvis, it's likely me.  I don't have any other internet aliases.

And that really was a great article.

What will we all do when Fed is gone?

Re: Federer v Nadal

Yeah, its a pretty one of a kind name, which is why I responded. I don't know any other Arvis'.

It WAS a really great article. Nice storytelling aspect to it.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Great article indeed. I remember very well that Rome final.. one of the most frustrating losses at the hand of Rafa along with the 2009 Aussie Open and Wimbledon 2008.

I just hope Roger goes out to enjoy this kind of moment. Rafa is probably going to win the match. Probably.. but not certainly. Roger is going to need some magic.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Nice post, Sneaky. You make some good points about Nadal's style of play, and from your post, you are obviously pro-Federer. But, I would never agree that Federer (or any player) made a mistake by not losing, so that he doesn't have to deal with disgruntled fans.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Another thoughtful post, Sneaky. Too much to comment on now, but I will soon.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Sneaky, amen, AMEN!!!!!! (Less the part Fed should have lost to Waw)

Another thing that helps Nadal is the freaking slow courts nowadays. And thanks for mentioning Guga!!!

Last edited by Edu_Anackin (Jan. 28, 2017 6:26pm)

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Federer is the reason I started watching tennis, but I have to disagree on your Nadal stance. Nadal is easily the better returner. He stands so far back to return because he trusts in his speed and defensive abilities to keep a point going. Fed, on the other hand, chips or just blocks a lot of returns, almost hoping for a poor follow up shot from his opponent. He is capable of doing more on the return as he showed in the Zverev match, but he seems to tighten up against the top guys.

Also, I disagree that Nadal is just a defensive player. Nishikori is a great defensive player, Ferrer is a great defensive player. There are a lot of great defensive players. Nadal, however, is a complete player. His backhand is exceptional, and he can do anything with it. I think that has a lot more to do with him being naturally right-hand as opposed to strings or racquets. His serve is great, despite not hitting for a lot of power. The serve out wide to a right-hander's backhand is almost unplayable. His forehand doesn't even need mentioning. Most of all, his mental toughness is second to none. He never takes a point off, never gives his opponent any indication of weakness. Even when his game maybe isn't there or he's clearly feeling the pressure, you would never know it from his body language.

Sure, it's definitely more pleasing to watch Federer float around the court and hit great shots after beautifully constructing a point. However, to be "anti-Nadal" just because he plays a completely different style is a shame IMO.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

I can't believe 22 slams came and went without these two facing off in the final, and it's only their 2nd in eight years.  Never thought they'd meet again on the last day of a slam.  How things have changed - I actually want Federer to win.

Re: Federer v Nadal

If you want to know what mental strength is, look at Federer's break conversion rate versus Nadal. Federer's had matches where he's been 1-17, 1-13, 1-11, 4-18, etc. Federer doubts his own abilities when he plays Nadal. It's very evident when they play. It's currently happening right now. Federer played an amazing first set, and now he's down 4-0 in the second.

Defense doesn't win majors. Andy Murray is a great defensive player. He used to play matches very passively, letting his opponent dictate play. Obviously, he's changed his game and been more successful. To say Nadal wins majors because of slower courts and defense alone is ludicrous.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Mental toughness is indeed a thing. Re-watch the Zverev match. Roger looks like a completely different player from that match to tonight (or any other time he's played Nadal). It's obvious why. Zverev doesn't have the game to challenge him at all. It's like he's on a practice court. Against Nadal, he has to play almost perfectly to win, and he tightens up at times (especially on break chances).

I really don't understand your argument about equipment. Do you want Rafa to run around with a wooden racquet or something?

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Re: Federer v Nadal

The equipment is there for everyone. Why isn't everyone using a racquet and string combo that lets them hit 4000 RPM shots? It's obviously worked for Nadal.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Nobody plays like Nadal because they can't.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

Tennis athletes get tested more than any other sport, so if Nadal has taken PED's, then tennis officials have turned a blind eye. I for one wouldn't watch another second of tennis if he has taken PED's.

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Re: Federer v Nadal

As much as I love Sneaky (AND his exclamation point filled diatribes), I'm definitely with Aiur on this.  I don't like Rafa's style either, but at least it's one-of-a-kind.  And you can't argue with the results.

I also don't like casting aspersions on Nadal's character without any proof.  He's a great guy, a humble champ, and not the type that would cheat.  He works hard for every advantage he has.