Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

madman wrote:
dwightcharles wrote:
madman wrote:

I don't really see Raonic to win a slam, not yet atleast. I still think his backhand is too weak to win a slam. Serve/forehand is not enough to win a slam these days. He's improving for sure but I don't think he's there yet.

I think you're probably right, Madman... Raonic is not yet ready... But I do think he's getting really close.  His backhand is not too bad and his court coverage is getting better too... If he can beat Roger, then he can get to a final... but can he beat Novak?

Yes Milos is getting better and better. I remember the first time I saw him play it was after his breakthrough in AO in 2011, in Memphis when he played Roddick in the final. I said to myself after that match ended, this guy is going to be world #1 in three years (2014) I later changed my mind about that (during 2013) but I still think he can be a top-4 player. Maybe even better than that. I don't believe he's going to be #1 anymore though. Can he win a slam? Yes he certainly can but as I said in my previous post I don't think he will do it this month.

I agree with you regarding his movement, he's improved that a lot the last couple of years. Also his returns are getting better and better, that was his Achilles heel when he first came up on the big scene, he was always losing to big servers but nowdays he can beat them any day of the week if he plays good.

I don't think he can beat Djokovic in AO this time in a final (if nothing very unexpected happen like an injury or something like that) but maybe earlier. Djokovic is more vulnerable earlier in the tournaments, even when it's best of five, the risk that he lose is far greater in a quarter than in a final, if the opponent is good enough, which I think Raonic is.

The problems for Raonic is not Murray or Federer, I think he will have greater difficulty with Nadal and Wawrinka and even Ferrer. Also his seed is not going to favor him in this tournament. It will be difficult for him to reach the final but he has the potential of course.

Great analysis, madman!  I tend to agree with everything you've said.  Why do you think Raonic will have a harder time with Ferrer than with Murray?

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Raonic has less to worry about from Rafa than he does Roger or Murray, if you ask me.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

dwightcharles wrote:

Great analysis, madman!  I tend to agree with everything you've said.  Why do you think Raonic will have a harder time with Ferrer than with Murray?

History, looking at their H2H.

The reason the stats are like that is because Murray often becomes very passive, thats his biggest weakness I think. You can't afford to be that like aggressive players like Raonic. If we look Murray's H2H against another aggressive player, namely Berdych we can also see that he's had troubles in the past.

Ferrer on the other hand is not a passive player, when he's in form he's always trying to dictate the points, stepping into the court etc. That is something that Murray should be doing but often don't, he lacks the mental consistency to follow a game plan.

With that said Murray is obviously a better player than Ferrer. But I think that he would have more than five majors by now if he was as consistent as Ferrer is. The sad part is that Murray could be that because he doesn't play high risk tennis like Wawrinka or Del Potro does, it's purely a mental thing. Ferrer is mentally stronger (more consistent) than Murray, although he doesn't have as much talent as Murray has technically. I think the consistency is such a huge factor when you play great servers, you can't afford to "go away" for a while during a match against a player like that. So it's not a technical thing, it's mental.

I do however think that Raonic can beat Ferrer of course but if Ferrer is in top shape it will be very difficult. Both Murray and Ferrer usually plays well in AO.

Let's put it like this. If Murray finds his top form and really play tennis like he should be playing then I don't think anyone except Djokovic will beat him. But that is if he does that, I'm not so sure he will unfortunately.

For Raonic it's a different story to play a guy he has no victories against or someone he has several victories over. So it's a mental thing for him also.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Arvis wrote:

Raonic has less to worry about from Rafa than he does Roger or Murray, if you ask me.

Rafa is the best player in history against big servers. By far I would say.

Raonic has been a very easy matchup for him in the past and I think it will continue like that. Raonic finally beat him once when Rafa had his worst period in ten years.

Federer has actually had problems with Raonic in almost all their matches, he lost their latest (final).

Murray would beat Raonic but not without playing his best tennis.

One factor that could be good for Raonic though, is that Rafa usually doesn't play his best tennis in AO.

Last edited by madman (Jan. 14, 2016 6:47pm)

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

So finally the draw is out.

Serena got a difficult first round I must say. Giorgi is the type of player than can over-power anyone on a good day. Serena hasn't played a real full match since USO and have some troubles with her knee. It could be a nightmare first round for her.

Some interesting first rounds on the mens side also.

Nishikori - Kohlscreiber
Tsonga - Baghdatis
Nadal - Verdasco
Isner - Janowicz
Fognini - Muller
Simon - Pospisil

Raonic landed on the bad half (for him) with Murray, Wawrinka, Nadal and Ferrer. No he will not reach the final this year.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Men's Qualifying

- Luca Vanni, the #1 seed in Men's Qualies, lost in the first round to Dan Evans.  Nobody was surprised.  It will be interesting to see how far Vanni's ranking drops by the time Indian Wells is here.

- Another Italian, Thomas Fabbiano, who made the quarterfinals of Chennai, lost in the 2nd round of Qualies to Di Wu, of all people.  A terrible loss, by any measure.

- Radek Stepanek is a win away from qualifying for the main draw.  The 24th seeded Qualifier, Alejandro Gonzalez, is all that stands in his way.  He defeated Jan Satral and Jan-Lennard Struff along the way.  The letters "jan" appear, in that order, in Alejandro Gonzalez's name, so Steps is likely to win.

- Alejandro Fall lost to Niels Diesin in the first round

- Marinko Matosevic lost to the aforementioned Alejandro Gonzalez in the second round, in 3 sets.

- Lukas Lacko lost to Lorenzo Giustino, who then went on to lose to Saketh Myneni.  Myneni already had a pseudo-surprise win in the first round: he beat Ramkumar Ramanathan, the darling of Chennai, 4 and 1.  Ramanathan is exhibiting behavior typical of a tennis play who suddenly and unexpectedly had some major success: he's following it up with inexplicable defeat.

- An interesting match today: Aleksandr Nedovyesov vs. Ryan Harrison.  Nedovyesov defeated Marsel Ilhan in the first round, and Ryan Harrison surprised everyone by even winning two matches in a row, regardless of opponent.  Look for Nedovyesov to qualify today, despite Harrison not dropping a set in his first two matches.

- Go Soeda, who was runner-up at the Bangkok Challenger last week, couldn't follow that success up here and lost in the 2nd round to Alexander Kudryavtsev.  Kudyryavtsev faces Gojowyczyzkzckzckz (who deeated Brydan Klein and Frances Tiafoe) for a spot in the main draw.

- 9th-seed Michael Berrer lost to Taylor Fritz in the second round.  Fritz is ranked just outside the Top 150.

- Ireland's one tennis player, James McGee, took out 10th-seed Radu Albot in the 2nd round.  He faces 30th seed Daniel Brands today.  McGee has only successfully Qualified for a Slam once (US Open 2014).

- What amounts to a "blockbuster" in Qualies: Edouard Roger-Vasselin faces off against Pierre-Hugues Herbert today.

- Stephane Robert looks like he is trying to recapture some Australian Open magic.  Now all he has to do is lose today and then wait for someone to withdraw and get in as a Lucky Loser again.  Boom: guaranteed 2nd-week.

- Dustin Brown lost 3 and 3 to Dennis Novak in the first round.  Worst tennis player ever to beat Nadal?

- Elias Ymer, a young gun that has been generating a lot of positive press, also failed to get past the first round of qualies, losing in 3 to Argentina's Renzo Olivo (who faces Vincent Millot today).


Women's Qualifying

- In a battle of Sisters with Famous Brothers, Bernard Tomic's sister Sara lost in the first round to Jana Fett, sister of Boba Fett.  Fett went on to lose to 2nd-seed Nicole Gibbs in the 2nd round.

- 22nd seed Kai-Chen Chang lost to a Serbian named Ivana Jorovic.

- 4th-seed Sesil Karatantcheva managed only 2 games against her first round opponent, Jessica Pegula.  Pegula went on to lose 3 and 2 to China's Kai-Lin Zhang.

- Francesca Schiavone's streak of 61 consecutive Grand Slam Main Draw appearances was ended in the 2dn round of qualies by Virginie Razzano.  Razzano seems to enjoy ending long streaks.

- One of my fake girlfriends, Mandy Minella of Luxembourg, lost 3 and 2 in the first round of qualies.  Yep.  She still stinks at tennis.

- Karolina Pliskova's sister Kristyna is a match away from the main draw here after defeating Shahar Peer and Ysaline Bonaventure, both good wins.  She'll face impressive young American Sachia Vickery in the last round.

- Another fake girlfriend of mine, Kimiko Date-Krumm, also lost in the first round.  She lost in 3 to Amandine Hesse.  So sad.  That is one pretty 40-something.

- Michelle Larcher De Brito, she of the worst, most insufferable screeching grunt, is a match away from qualifying.  I pray that she does not play in any match that I want to watch.

- Elena Vesnina lost to China's Lin Zhu in the first round.  Chinese women seem intent on upsets in this qualifying tournament.  Zhu will face Maria Sakkari of Greece in the last round.

- Tamira Paszek continues to have a surprisingly good start to the year, beating Kateryna Kozlova and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez quite easily in her first two matches.  She'll face Barbora Krejcikova for a spot in the draw.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Arvis, there already will be a lucky loser since Lu withdrew after qualification draw started. So does this mean Robert is already in? To tank or not to tank? That is the question..

Last edited by Adunar (Jan. 15, 2016 11:43am)

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

My money is on: Milos Raonic will never win a major.  Even though his movement has clearly improved, he still doesn't move well enough -- and never will.  Not even close.  Nor is he anywhere near athletic enough. 

The best serve in the game, for sure.  That's about it.  No other part of his game comes near being equal to the best players, including his forehand.  He can beat anyone on his day, but you have to win 7 in a row to win a major. 

That said, Gaston Gaudio won a major.  So did Cilic.  I could go on & on & on & on.  So it COULD happen.  If it does, it will probably be at Wimbledon (assuming he learns how to play on grass before he retires).

Last edited by Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru (Jan. 16, 2016 3:51am)

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru wrote:

My money is on: Milos Raonic will never win a major.  Even though his movement has clearly improved, he still doesn't move well enough -- and never will.  Not even close.  Nor is he anywhere near athletic enough. 

The best serve in the game, for sure.  That's about it.  No other part of his game comes near being equal to the best players, including his forehand.  He can beat anyone on his day, but you have to win 7 in a row to win a major. 

That said, Gaston Gaudio won a major.  So did Cilic.  I could go on & on & on & on.  So it COULD happen.  If it does, it will probably be at Wimbledon (assuming he learns how to play on grass before he retires).

Karlovic has the best serve in tennis, no doubt.

I actually think Milos chances are better in French Open, because of his slower movement. Same reason Söderling played so well there, they get more time. He's also tall so low bounces are not good for him. For him to win he would need to serve as Karlovic does smile

Grass courts are not the same as they were back in the day. Balls are bigger, rackets are much better so it's not as big of an advantage to have a great serve in Wimbledon anymore, not like it was in the 90's. Many factors have changed. You need to defend much better nowdays since the big serves are not as lethal as they used to be.

I definitely think that Milos can improve his movement enough to win a major also. Just look at Wawrinka, he was so slow, even worse than Raonic IMO but now he's super fast, his final in FO against Djokovic was very impressive, the reason he won that match was because the way he defended. Meaning: It was the deciding factor since he always had the offense.

Biggest questions marks I have regarding Raonic is, will he stay free from injuries long enough to improve his game so that his level can be high enough to win a major? And can he improve his backhand more?

I think his backhand is too weak unfortunately. I'm not too worried about the movement, thats something you can work on your entire career and improve on. Technical stuff like strokes are something you must be very talented at already as a kid to be able to win a slam as a senior.

Last edited by madman (Jan. 16, 2016 1:01pm)

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Karlovic hits more aces than anyone else, but IMO Raonic has the best serve mostly because his second serve is so good.  The reason people have so much trouble with Dr. Ivo's serve is that, due to his height, he can hit angles that others can't & the bounce is so high.  You can certainly make an argument that Ivo has the better serve, but I respectfully disagree with that conclusion.  Based on mechanics, there's no comparison.  Raonic's serve is much better.   

Your argument about Milos' best chance being at RG may be correct, but I don't think so.  Because the ball still skids on grass and because (even with the new grass) there are still uneven bounces, grass still affords the server a much greater advantage than other surfaces.

Wawrinka is not a big lumbering hulk like Raonic.  He's very athletic.  When he got fit his quickness improved greatly.  Raonic will NEVER move like the top players.  He will never defend like the top players.  He will never be as athletic as the top players.  His problem is not mechanics (though his backhand is NOT good) but rather the fact that -- compared to people like Nole, Murray, Rafa, Fed, Ferrer, Wawrinka etc. -- he's a lumbering hulk.

So, madman, is there some reason you haven't accepted the invitations I've sent you via email to join Yoda Cup???

Last edited by Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru (Jan. 16, 2016 2:37pm)

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru wrote:

Karlovic hits more aces than anyone else, but IMO Raonic has the best serve mostly because his second serve is so good.  The reason people have so much trouble with Dr. Ivo's serve is that, due to his height, he can hit angles that others can't & the bounce is so high.  You can certainly make an argument that Ivo has the better serve, but I respectfully disagree with that conclusion.  Based on mechanics, there's no comparison.  Raonic's serve is much better.   

Your argument about Milos' best chance being at RG may be correct, but I don't think so.  Because the ball still skids on grass and because (even with the new grass) there are still uneven bounces, grass still affords the server a much greater advantage than other surfaces.

Wawrinka is not a big lumbering hulk like Raonic.  He's very athletic.  When he got fit his quickness improved greatly.  Raonic will NEVER move like the top players.  He will never defend like the top players.  He will never be as athletic as the top players.  His problem is not mechanics (though his backhand is NOT good) but rather the fact that -- compared to people like Nole, Murray, Rafa, Fed, Ferrer, Wawrinka etc. -- he's a lumbering hulk.

So, madman, is there some reason you haven't accepted the invitations I've sent you via email to join Yoda Cup???

Ivo Karlovic has the best serve, period. His height yes, thats WHY it is so good, doesn't make it less good because he's tall. It might take away from his talent (a little bit) but that is not relevant to the discussion.

I actually think that Isner has the best second serve on the tour. Raonic is a great server, I put him second behind Karlovic and Isner at 3rd. But the strength in Raonic serving is mainly the first serve. I also think that he can improve his serve more, sometimes he's easy to read for the good players. While Karlovic is more difficult to read and Isner having a ridiculous kick serve on his second. I also think that Wawrinka has one of the best second serves out there, especially his wide kick serve.

Servers have advantage on grass for sure but it's not as big as it used to be. Thats why we have player-types like Rafa and Novak winning Wimbledon several times. The defence is a more important factor in todays tennis. Just look at a player like Murray, so passive really but he's made huge success. I wish he can play aggressive like he did in the Olympics and in the Wimbledon final of 2013 again. Then he would win even more with a defence like that.

I'm not sure I will join the cup, simply because I'm not a competitive person at all. I will think about it, thanks for the invite.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Oh c'mon Madman, you love talking about tennis and you obviously have your opinions about things so you are maybe more competitive than you realise. wink

For what it's worth, I agree with Don re the Raonic serve, Ivo and Isner can bang them down too, but I think Milos has the best all round serve on tour now, all three are brutal when on song though, not much between them all really.

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Madman, it is just fantasy tennis game. No big deal, just have fun with us. Of course we are competitive because nobody likes to lose. I am sure you are gonna like it.

There were many people before you who hesitated. They all came, all loved it and are still playing with us!

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Don't listen to them madman, It's a trap!

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Hey madman, since you're into fantasy tennis, you might want to check out TennisDrawChallenge.com.  There are two games on the site (both men and women), one is a bracket (with prizes for the three highest scores by the end of the year) which includes every ATP tournament (250/500/Masters) and Grand Slam (no world tour finals), same and separate for women in WTA.  There's another game, which you pick a team of players for every tournament (atp/slam, no WTF), and you get their equivalent in atp points for those tournaments.  You can only pick each player a maximum of 8 times throughout the year.  Check it out.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Well, I made my clear ATP and shuffled WTA picks smile

Lets wait for the first service....

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

madman wrote:

I'm not sure I will join the cup, simply because I'm not a competitive person at all.

I cannot even begin to understand how someone with such strong opinions -- and no trace of doubt that he is right and those who disagree with him are wrong -- can think of himself as "not a competitive person."  That is ridiculous on its face.  It seems to me that you, madman, are afraid to put your opinions to the test against the best and brightest, which is exactly what Yoda Cup is.  Are you really that certain that you don't know what you're talking about?  If so, I guess I'll have to agree with you.

Last edited by Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru (Jan. 17, 2016 6:34pm)

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru wrote:
madman wrote:

I'm not sure I will join the cup, simply because I'm not a competitive person at all.

I cannot even begin to understand how someone with such strong opinions -- and no trace of doubt that he is right and those who disagree with him are wrong -- can think of himself as "not a competitive person."  That is ridiculous on its face.  It seems to me that you, madman, are afraid to put your opinions to the test against the best and brightest, which is exactly what Yoda Cup is.  Are you really that certain that you don't know what you're talking about?  If so, I guess I'll have to agree with you.

Hey Madman,
please ignore this 'lumbering hulk' and join us anyway.  I'm one of those who hesitated but now I really enjoy the camraderie and comments of the group.

Last edited by dwightcharles (Jan. 18, 2016 5:50am)

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru wrote:
madman wrote:

I'm not sure I will join the cup, simply because I'm not a competitive person at all.

I cannot even begin to understand how someone with such strong opinions -- and no trace of doubt that he is right and those who disagree with him are wrong -- can think of himself as "not a competitive person."  That is ridiculous on its face.  It seems to me that you, madman, are afraid to put your opinions to the test against the best and brightest, which is exactly what Yoda Cup is.  Are you really that certain that you don't know what you're talking about?  If so, I guess I'll have to agree with you.

The fact that you think opinions has something to do with competing and that you think that my opinions are "strong" (you only say that because they are not the same as yours) is a good reason why I won't join the cup.

The thing is, I can live with people having a different opinion than mine, opinions are overrated anyways, you however seem to be incapable of discussing. Thats the thing! I can also live with losing, I really couldn't care less if I win or lose or if someone agrees with me or not, because it's not my purpose in life.

But hey, thanks for calling me "ridiculous", you seem to be a very friendly person. Now I clearly see a good reason to join your cup.

dwightcharles wrote:
Don--2013-Yoda-Cup-Guru wrote:
madman wrote:

I'm not sure I will join the cup, simply because I'm not a competitive person at all.

I cannot even begin to understand how someone with such strong opinions -- and no trace of doubt that he is right and those who disagree with him are wrong -- can think of himself as "not a competitive person."  That is ridiculous on its face.  It seems to me that you, madman, are afraid to put your opinions to the test against the best and brightest, which is exactly what Yoda Cup is.  Are you really that certain that you don't know what you're talking about?  If so, I guess I'll have to agree with you.

Hey Madman,
please ignore this 'lumbering hulk' and join us anyway.  I'm one of those who hesitated but now I really enjoy the camraderie and comments of the group.

Yes I did, don't worry smile

Last edited by madman (Jan. 18, 2016 10:09am)

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Maybe next time madman. Or, maybe not. Good luck on your picks.

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Federer reaches 300 match wins in the slams.  Brings up some interesting statistics...

Most slam match wins, male or female:
1.  Navratilova 305
2.  Evert 300
2.  Federer 300
4.  SWilliams 288
5.  Graf 278
6.  Connors 233
7.  VWilliams 231
8.  Agassi 224
9.  Lendl 222
10. Sanchez Vicario 210
10. Emerson 210
10. Djokovic 210

Last edited by dwightcharles (Jan. 22, 2016 6:53pm)

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Most slam match wins, male:

1.  Federer 300
2.  Connors 233
3.  Agassi 224
4.  Lendl 222
5.  Emerson 210
5.  Djokovic 210
7.  Sampras 203
8.  Nadal 198
9.  Edberg 178
10. Rosewall 171
11. McEnroe 167
12. Becker 163
13. AMurray 156
14. Newcombe 150
15. LHewitt 148

Last edited by dwightcharles (Jan. 22, 2016 6:54pm)

2017 Supreme Jedi, 2017 Lord Vader, 2017 Chivalrous Wookie, 2015 Naboo Champion, 2018 Big Fat Nothing

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Most slam match wins, female:

1.  Navratilova 305
2.  Evert 300
3.  SWilliams 288
4.  Graf 278
5.  VWilliams 231
6.  Sanchez Vicario 210
7.  Margaret Court 207
8.  Davenport 198
9.  BJKing 190
10. Sharapova 182
11. Seles 180
12. Martinez 174
13. Sabatini 164
14. Hingis 153
15. Novotna 149

Last edited by dwightcharles (Jan. 22, 2016 6:54pm)

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Most slam match wins, male, including Pro slams (& WHCC)

1.  Federer 300
2.  Rosewall 242
3.  Connors 233
4.  Agassi 224
5.  Lendl 222
6.  Emerson 210
6.  Djokovic 210
8.  Sampras 203
9.  Nadal 198
10. Laver 179
11. Edberg 178
12. McEnroe 167
13. Becker 163
14. Tilden 162
15. AMurray 156

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Most slam match wins, Australian Chps, male

1.  Federer 78
2.  Edberg 56
3.  Djokovic 53
4.  Crawford 52
5.  Agassi 48
5.  Lendl 48
7.  Emerson 46
8.  Nadal 45
8.  Sampras 45
8.  Newcombe 45
8.  Quist 45
12. Bromwich 44
13. Rosewall 43
14. Murray 41
15. Ferreira 39

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