Topic: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Wow another Fantasy Tennis season has started and the first GS of the year the 2016 OZ Open will get underway in a few weeks.

I like the look of Rafa at the mo...just worried that he is playing too much?

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Good idea creating the thread Milo smile

Rafa surely played A LOT of tennis lately. He played quite a lot of tennis since October:
Beijing F, Shanghai S, Basel F, Paris Q, WTF S, ITPL, Abu Dhabi and now Doha!

Not sure he is gonna be fresh for Melbourne but it is Rafa and he really needs to spend this time on the tennis court. I expect a good Aussie Open from him. But Murray and Novak should be too good for him anyway. They are the two favorite IMO.

Then you Roger, Rafa and Stan who can win it but will need to play lights out tennis.

Then Kei, Berdych or Tsonga could pull some upsets (though jo-Willy is a bit injured at the mo'). Cilic and Raonic are both very dangerous in Melbourne and could very well upset a top seed along the way. really wouldn't surprise me to see them knock off a big name in R16.


Concerning the women, it is hard to tell. Serena will be the favorite for sure but I really like Masha's chances this time. Aggie seems on a roll and Kvitova can blast anyone off the court if she is in. I don't believe Muguruza will do that well but she may surprise us all.

Bencic is also one to watch, along with Ana.
I have a bad feeling about Venus, Woz and Bacs though...

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Rafa doesn't need to be "fresh".  He needs to be confident.  Playing a lot and winning a lot will do that for him way more than rest will.

Good call on Bacs, Ad.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Serena has pulled out of her first Hopman Cup match...need to read why.

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

knee injury apparently.. Hasn't played a match since US Open SF...

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Serena could have one of those years in 2016, how will her motivation be after coming so close to a calendar GS?
I'm picking an injury or two might see Serena have just an ok season in 2016.

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Anyone of you in Melbourne?

I am not, but one day.... smile

Last edited by spotec (Jan. 11, 2016 11:30am)

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Would love to visit Australia someday.  Preferably in January.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Biggest contenders for Djokovic will be Wawrinka and Murray. I think that Djokovic can handle both Rafa and Roger easily on hardcourt. As far as I see it the only player that doesn't have a mental disadvantage beforehand against Djokovic is Wawrinka. Murray have had some big problems with Federer lately, so that could stop him.

Djokovic - Wawrinka in the final would be sweet, I think that would be the best possible final. Let's hope for a good draw.

Ladies are very difficult to predict now when Serena have problems you never know who's going to win really.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Anyone besides me liking Raonic's chances in Melbourne? 2015 pretty much sucked for us Canucks... but maybe 2016 will be better... Genie looks like she's coming back a little too...

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

I think milos will play good aussie Open. At least best of 16. how far he can go depends on the draw. If there is no Nowak in his quarter, he can go very deep...

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Milos needs to win without too many taxing matches early on then he could do well, he is a big unit so he can't afford any five setters in the first few rounds, that serve of his will always take him a certain distance anyway.

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Yes, If Milos can avoid Novak until the final, he might make the final.  Another big problem for him might be Wawrinka whom he's never beaten.

Speaking of Wawrinka... it sounds like a lot of people are thinking Stan might the 2nd favourite - ahead of Murray, Fed, and Nadal...  He doesn't seem to have the consistency but in some ways I think that could be right... last year, after Novak he had the 2nd most slam matches won...

Is Wawrinka worthy of being considered 2nd favourite in Melbourne?

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

last 8 slams
Novak - 4 W, matches: 49-4 = 0.925 (two losses to Wawrinka)
Wawrinka - 2W, matches: 35-6 = 0.854
Federer - 0 W, matches: 37-8 = 0.822
Murray - 0 W, matches: 36-8 = 0.818
Nadal - 1 W, matches: 27-6 = 0.818
Cilic - 1 W, matches: 26-6 = 0.813
Berdych - 0 W, matches: 29-8 = 0.784
Tsonga - 0 W, matches: 23-7 = 0.767
Raonic - 0 W, matches: 22-7 = 0.759
KAnderson - 0 W, matches: 23-8 = 0.742
Ferrer - 0 W, matches: 20-7 = 0.741
Nishikori - 0 W, matches; 20-7 = 0.741
Gasquet - 0 W, matches: 21-8 = 0.724
Dimitrov - 0 W, matches: 18-8 = 0.692
Monfils - 0 W, matches: 17-8 = 0.680
FLopez - 0 W, matches: 16-8 = 0.667
Kyrgios - 0 W, matches: 15-8 = 0.652

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

dwightcharles wrote:

Yes, If Milos can avoid Novak until the final, he might make the final.  Another big problem for him might be Wawrinka whom he's never beaten.

Speaking of Wawrinka... it sounds like a lot of people are thinking Stan might the 2nd favourite - ahead of Murray, Fed, and Nadal...  He doesn't seem to have the consistency but in some ways I think that could be right... last year, after Novak he had the 2nd most slam matches won...

Is Wawrinka worthy of being considered 2nd favourite in Melbourne?

He is MORE than worthy!! Wawrinka will win the Australian Open.
Stan the man has a plan to please his biggest fan lol

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

GOOOOOOOOO MILOS

- Milo

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

I don't really see Raonic to win a slam, not yet atleast. I still think his backhand is too weak to win a slam. Serve/forehand is not enough to win a slam these days. He's improving for sure but I don't think he's there yet.

Last edited by madman (Jan. 12, 2016 1:32pm)

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

dwightcharles wrote:

last 8 slams
Novak - 4 W, matches: 49-4 = 0.925 (two losses to Wawrinka)
Wawrinka - 2W, matches: 35-6 = 0.854
Federer - 0 W, matches: 37-8 = 0.822
Murray - 0 W, matches: 36-8 = 0.818
Nadal - 1 W, matches: 27-6 = 0.818
Cilic - 1 W, matches: 26-6 = 0.813
Berdych - 0 W, matches: 29-8 = 0.784
Tsonga - 0 W, matches: 23-7 = 0.767
Raonic - 0 W, matches: 22-7 = 0.759
KAnderson - 0 W, matches: 23-8 = 0.742
Ferrer - 0 W, matches: 20-7 = 0.741
Nishikori - 0 W, matches; 20-7 = 0.741
Gasquet - 0 W, matches: 21-8 = 0.724
Dimitrov - 0 W, matches: 18-8 = 0.692
Monfils - 0 W, matches: 17-8 = 0.680
FLopez - 0 W, matches: 16-8 = 0.667
Kyrgios - 0 W, matches: 15-8 = 0.652

interesting stats, charles.

and one can see, that roger and andy are waiting for more since two years....astonishing....time goes by so far.

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Yes, Spotec,
it appears that Andy and Roger are the ones pushing Novak... they were in 3 slam finals last year... but really it's Wawrinka who has beaten Novak twice in slams and claimed 2 titles.  Stan is not as consistent at the other events, but when it comes slam time, watch out!

Slam rounds won in 2015
27 – Djokovic
21 – Wawrinka
19 – Murray
18 – Federer
14 – Berdych, Gasquet
13 – KAnderson

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

madman wrote:

I don't really see Raonic to win a slam, not yet atleast. I still think his backhand is too weak to win a slam. Serve/forehand is not enough to win a slam these days. He's improving for sure but I don't think he's there yet.

I think you're probably right, Madman... Raonic is not yet ready... But I do think he's getting really close.  His backhand is not too bad and his court coverage is getting better too... If he can beat Roger, then he can get to a final... but can he beat Novak?

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

I foresee only 4 possibilities for anyone not named Novak to win a Slam this year:

1) The winner is female

2) Novak gets injured

3) Wawrinka goes God Mode again

4) Some random player goes all Nishikori on a substandard Novak, gets hot at the right time, and takes him out before the final.

Beyond those, Novak's game is just too complete and too perfect for any of the other contenders to beat him.
- Non-God-Mode Wawa?  Highly unlikely, unless Novak plays like butt.
- Nadal?  The idea of Rafa ever beating Novak in Best of 5 ever again is almost absurd.
- Roger?  Has the game and the wisdom, but simply not consistent enough and can't match Novak's weight-of-shot.
- Murray?  Has a very small chance on Wimbledon's grass, but that's it.
- Nishikori/Berdych/Ferrer/Raonic?  Simply don't have enough weapons.  Period.
- Other than the above, there's Tsonga.  He's the kinda guy that is most likely to pull a #4 from above, but in general he doesn't have the mental strength to make that eventuality at all likely.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

Fantastic analysis, Arvis!  Loved reading that!
So what are the odds, Waws hits GM when he plays Novak?

I'm going to try to answer my own question...
ok, so in 2014-15
Djo-Waw 4-2 (head to head)
in slams 1-2 for Waw

So is the answer that simple?  If they meet in a slam, Stan finds god-mode?
In their last 5 slam meetings (2013-2015) it's 3-2 for Novak, but all his wins came in 5 sets.
So if they meet in a slam, should we expect it to go 5, unless Stan wins before that...?

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

dwightcharles wrote:
madman wrote:

I don't really see Raonic to win a slam, not yet atleast. I still think his backhand is too weak to win a slam. Serve/forehand is not enough to win a slam these days. He's improving for sure but I don't think he's there yet.

I think you're probably right, Madman... Raonic is not yet ready... But I do think he's getting really close.  His backhand is not too bad and his court coverage is getting better too... If he can beat Roger, then he can get to a final... but can he beat Novak?

Yes Milos is getting better and better. I remember the first time I saw him play it was after his breakthrough in AO in 2011, in Memphis when he played Roddick in the final. I said to myself after that match ended, this guy is going to be world #1 in three years (2014) I later changed my mind about that (during 2013) but I still think he can be a top-4 player. Maybe even better than that. I don't believe he's going to be #1 anymore though. Can he win a slam? Yes he certainly can but as I said in my previous post I don't think he will do it this month.

I agree with you regarding his movement, he's improved that a lot the last couple of years. Also his returns are getting better and better, that was his Achilles heel when he first came up on the big scene, he was always losing to big servers but nowdays he can beat them any day of the week if he plays good.

I don't think he can beat Djokovic in AO this time in a final (if nothing very unexpected happen like an injury or something like that) but maybe earlier. Djokovic is more vulnerable earlier in the tournaments, even when it's best of five, the risk that he lose is far greater in a quarter than in a final, if the opponent is good enough, which I think Raonic is.

The problems for Raonic is not Murray or Federer, I think he will have greater difficulty with Nadal and Wawrinka and even Ferrer. Also his seed is not going to favor him in this tournament. It will be difficult for him to reach the final but he has the potential of course.

Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

dwightcharles wrote:

Fantastic analysis, Arvis!  Loved reading that!
So what are the odds, Waws hits GM when he plays Novak?

I'm going to try to answer my own question...
ok, so in 2014-15
Djo-Waw 4-2 (head to head)
in slams 1-2 for Waw

So is the answer that simple?  If they meet in a slam, Stan finds god-mode?
In their last 5 slam meetings (2013-2015) it's 3-2 for Novak, but all his wins came in 5 sets.
So if they meet in a slam, should we expect it to go 5, unless Stan wins before that...?

it sounds crazy, but a lot of success depends on the upcoming draw already....

who will be drawn in novaks quarter and how will the other quarters look like...tomorrow we will know more smile

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Re: 2016 Australian Open starts soon...

So excited to see the draw!  Just 2.5 hours...

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