Topic: Wimbledon 2016 is here!

I don't normally post my predictions here, but this one has lots of stats that some may find interesting so here it is!  I'd love to hear your predictions... Fire away!

http://tennisgut.blogspot.ca/2016/06/wi … eview.html


German Teen Wins Wimbledon!!

This far-fetched headline became a reality in 1985 when 17-year old Boris Becker shocked the tennis world.  Now, 19 year-old German, Alexander Zverev, beat Federer on grass last week in Halle.  Could history repeat? Federer had won Halle eight times.

The top four hegemony of Djokovic, Murray, Federer, and Nadal have ruled tennis like no other players in the open era, nailing down the top two spots for the last 11 years.  Their rule will not last forever.  But it certainly doesn’t appear that the current top two, Djokovic and Murray are not going away anytime soon; even if they are turning 30 next year.

But the knocks on the door from below are getting louder.  The heirs apparent are #28 Zverev, #21 Nick Kyrgios, and #8 Dominic Thiem.  There is no one younger ranked above them, at ages 19, 21 and 22, respectively.

Becker was ranked #20 when he won Wimbledon in 1985.  Now he is the coach of Novak Djokovic.  Meanwhile, one of Becker’s chief rivals, Ivan Lendl, is coaching Andy Murray.  The head to head between Becker and Lendl was 11-10 for Lendl, even though Lendl is 7.5 years older.  Not to be outdone, Canadian Milos Raonic has just hired John McEnroe to coach him through Wimbledon.  Lendl was 21-15 over McEnroe.

Becker would seem to be in the driver’s seat in the proxy battle of coaches, with Djokovic looking the strongest of the horses actually running the race.  But it was under Lendl that Murray achieved his greatest success winning the Olympic gold, the US Open, and Wimbledon in one glorious 12-month stretch.  Can the Murray-Lendl tandem do it again?

Or can McEnroe add enough creativity to the fierce work ethic of Raonic for him to carry away the trophy?  And let’s not forget that Stan Wawrinka has hired Richard Krajicek (Wimbledon champ 1996) to help him to victory.  Or maybe this is the year of the break-through?  Will the young finally storm the bastille and take it?

First Quarter
Up and coming Brit, Kyle Edmund, wily old Philipp Kohlschreiber, or grass-o-phile Nicolas Mahut (victim in the longest match of all time), will probably not cause Djokovic to break much sweat as he sails to the quarter-finals. 

The other half of this section should favour Raonic (seeded 6) over Jack Sock (27), Kevin Anderson (20), and David Goffin (11).  Goffin is having a career year (so far) and Anderson is a massive 6’8” and no grass court slouch.  But Raonic has been to the semis before and seems to be in the best form of his life.  He could cause a lot of troubles with his serve for Djokovic, but even with McEnroe in his corner, taking down the wall of pure tennis awesomeness the Serb presents will be nearly impossible.
Djokovic d. Raonic

Second Quarter
On the one hand, Federer just lost on grass to two of the Next Gen stars (as branded by the ATP), Thiem and Zverev.  This is no mean feat considering Fed’s grass court greatest-of-all-time rep and may indicate that the glory days are past.  But on the other hand, given the extensive layoffs of Roger’s year so far, the fact that he won five matches on grass could show him rounding nicely into form.  Is Fed done?  Does he still have a realistic shot at this year’s title?

Let’s not forget he’s been in the final the last two years.  But at age 34, his days are numbered.  A Federer-esque talent could string together another slam title run.  But I think the grass losses this year mean more than just being part of the comeback trail.  I think Federer’s last best shot at slam #18 was last year.  Watch him prove me wrong.

I’ll still pick Fed for a run to the quarters over Monfils (17) or Simon (16).  But then I’ll expect he’ll be running into Marin Cilic (9) who I’m picking over Nishikori (5).
Cilic d. Federer

Third Quarter
Dominic Thiem (8) and Florian Mayer have had the extreme bad luck to run into each other in the first round at this year’s Wimbledon.  No one was taking Thiem seriously on grass until he beat Federer and took the title in Stuttgart this year.  But the very next week, Mayer took out Thiem in the semis of Halle and won the title over Zverev.  All three have the potential to go deep at Wimbledon.  Mayer has been to the quarters twice before.  So the Mayer/Thiem clash will be THE first-rounder to watch.

The winner of that match could face Zverev (24) in the fourth round... although there is the looming figure of Tomas Berdych (10), 2010 finalist, for Zverev to encounter first.  It’s a dense little section and all four could be favoured about equally, but I’ll take Zverev, the German teen.

Across the way, Wawrinka is seeded four, and slated in the first to face another revelation of 2016, Taylor Fritz (no he is not a female country singer).  The 18 year-old Fritz has shot up from #174 at the beginning of the year to an astonishing #63.  He managed to win a match on grass in Stuttgart before pushing Federer through three very tight sets.  I’ll expect Wawrinka to make it through, but an upset would not be a shock.

Wawrinka could then run into a returning Juan Martin Del Potro, 2009 US Open champion, former world #4, and one-time Wimbledon semi-finalist.  The fourth round could bring up talented but under-achieving Bernard Tomic (19), former quarter-finalist.  If Wawrinka can pass all these tests, he should be able to handle the survivor of the Thiem-Mayer-Zverev-Berdych cage fight.
Wawrinka d. Zverev

Fourth Quarter
Andy Murray (2) is in stupendous form this year and might be halfway to a grand slam himself, were it not for Djokovic.  The facts that he made the French final on his least successful surface, and has just re-united with Lendl in time for his most successful surface, should make everyone else afraid. 

He could run into Feliciano Lopez (22), a three-time quarter-finalist, in the fourth round, or Nick Kyrgios (15).  Kyrgios took Nadal out of Wimbledon two years ago, making the quarters, and has just reached a career-high ranking.  Watching his powerful game, fast feet, and amazing hands has prompted many to deem him a future slam champion.  He hasn’t realized that yet, but at age 21 still has lots of time.  He’s dangerous.  He’s also lost four times to Murray without a win.

The other top two seeds in this quarter are Frenchmen Richard Gasquet (7) and the mercurial Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12).  John Isner (18) has a tricky opening against Marcos Baghdatis and could run into Tsonga in the third.  Last year’s quarter-finalist, Canadian Vasek Pospisil, could meet Gasquet in the third.  Gasquet and Tsonga have both been to the semis twice before, but Gasquet more recently, so I’ll pick him as Murray’s victim in the quarter.  Murray leads the head to head 8-3.
Murray d. Gasquet

Semis
Djokovic and Cilic have played at Wimbledon twice before with Novak taking both encounters. Cilic pushed him to five sets in the 2014 quarters, but at the end of the day, Djokovic sports a perfect 14-0 record over Marin, and I don’t see that changing in Novak’s present form.
Djokovic d. Cilic

Wawrinka has not been to the Wimbledon semis before, making quarters the last two years.  His long swings are not well-suited for grass, so I’m counting on the relationship with coach Krajicek to assist in getting him through a tough draw.  It could very well be Thiem, Zverev, or Berdych in this slot, but I doubt the outcome will be much different.
Murray d. Wawrinka.

Final
Can Andy actually beat Novak when it counts?  For both of Murray’s slam titles he faced Djokovic in the final.  But Murray hasn’t beaten him on the slam stage since then, three years ago.  During that time, the head to head has gone from 11-8 for Djokovic to 24-10.  That’s 13 wins in the last 15 matches.

But if there is ever a chance, this is it.  Murray is on his best surface.  He has Lendl in his corner.  Djokovic has just completed the career slam (at Roland Garros) so may be ripe for a let down.  Pressure to win the calendar year Grand Slam could weigh on Djokovic, and the still living form of Rod Laver has already been invoked by the press.  We saw what happened to Serena at last year’s US Open, and what happened to Navratilova in the 1984 Australian – faltering just short of the finish.

Djokovic d. Murray
He’s just too good.

If he wins, Djokovic will become only the second man to win five slams in a row, with the following caveats.  Several men from the old days won five or more slams in a row, in slams that they entered – that is non-consecutive slams – since travel was not easy in those days and the status of the majors was not well-established.  These include Tilden, Wilding, Sears, WRenshaw, and Larned.  If we include the pro-slams of the professional era (1927-1967), and the ILTF majors (1912-1924) the list looks like this:
Consecutive titles from majors entered
Tilden    9    W1920 - U1925
Budge    9    W1937 - USPro1940
Rosewall    9    FrPro1960 - Wem1963
Wilding    8    A1909 - WHCC1914
Sears    7    U1881 - U1887
WRenshaw    6    W1881 - W1886
Larned    5    U1907 - U1911
Vines    5    Wem1934 - USPro1939
Kramer    5    U1946 - Wem1949
Djokovic    4    W2015 - F2016
Laver    4    A1969 - U1969
Laver    4    Wem1966 - Wem1967
Laver    4    A1962 - U1962
Nusslein    4    FPro1937 - Wem1938
RFDoherty    4    W1897 - W1900

(On the women’s side, Helen Wills won 14 consecutive majors that she entered.)

Of the men’s list, only Don Budge in 1937-38 won the same four slams that are contested today, consecutively, winning six in a row.  The only other person to win at least four of these same slams in a row was Rod Laver, twice, in 1962 and 1969.  Budge did not face the best players of his day in 1938 since most had turned pro and played on another circuit (whose players were not eligible to play the slam tournaments).  Four of the top five that year would have included Perry, Vines, and Nusslein (all of whom had turned pro), and Von Cramm who was banned from play by the Nazis.  So Budge’s slam comes with a major asterisk, as does his run of six major titles from 1937 Wim to 1938 US.  Similarly, Laver’s 1962 slam also occurred in the absence of the four best professionals of his day, namely Rosewall, Hoad, Gimeno, and Gonzales.  So both the 1938 and 1962 slams are somewhere between Edberg’s junior slam of 1983 and the modern Open Era Grand Slam, in my estimation. 

But Laver’s 1969 slam requires no asterisks.  It was legitimate because tennis was open at that time and all the best players of the day were allowed to play the slams.  It remains a unique achievement, equalled only by the three Grand Slams achieved in the women’s game (Connolly 1953, Court 1970, Graf 1988).  Given the greater depth in the sport today, I would say Djokovic’s accomplishment of holding all four slam titles simultaneously already surpasses Laver’s 1969 slam, but that is just my opinion.

If Djokovic should win this Wimbledon it will be his 4th title here, and his 13th slam singles title, making him eighth on the all-time list, 4th in the Open Era (since 1968).

Major Singles Titles
Rosewall    23
Laver    19
Federer    17
Tilden    15
Gonzales    14
Sampras    14
Nadal    14
Emerson    12
Djokovic    12
Borg    11
Cochet    11
Perry    10
Budge    10

Those unaccustomed to seeing the professional slams of the 1927-1967 era and the ILTF majors (1912-1924) included, may be surprised at this list. But this is a more complete list than is often presented of slam winners, and it more accurately represents the history of the men’s game.  That said, it is not a good proxy, in my opinion, for a greatest of all time list.  That requires other metrics, I believe.  I happily refer anyone interested to the excellent site thetennisbase.com

If Djokovic wins this Wimbledon he will join John McEnroe at 8th on the list of matches won at Wimbledon, with 59 wins (providing he gets no walkovers).
Matches won at Wimbledon:
    Wins    Losses    Ratio
Connors    84    18    0.8235
Federer    79    10    0.8876
Becker    71    12    0.8554
AWGore    64    26    0.7111
Sampras    63    7    0.9000
Ritchie    62    24    0.7209
Emerson    60    14    0.8108
McEnroe    59    11    0.8429
Austin    56    13    0.8116
Borotra    55    10    0.8462
Djokovic    52    8    0.8667
Borg    51    4    0.9273
Laver    50    7    0.8772
Drobny    50    16    0.7576
Edberg    49    12    0.8033
Ivanisevic    49    14    0.7778

Federer could possibly catch Connors for top spot this year, if he makes the semis.  Andy Murray is the next highest active player after Djokovic, with 46 wins.

Looking at total matches won in the majors (as described above), we get:

    Wins    Losses    Ratio
Federer    302    50    0.858
Rosewall    242    46    0.840
Connors    233    49    0.826
Agassi    224    53    0.809
Lendl    222    49    0.819
Djokovic    221    34    0.867
Emerson    210    48    0.814
Sampras    203    38    0.842
Nadal    200    30    0.870
Laver    179    36    0.833

Djokovic is currently 7th in the list of consecutive matches won in majors entered, but will likely move up to 3rd if he wins 7 in a row to take Wimbledon.

Consecutive match wins in majors entered
57    Tilden (1920 W – 1926 US)
47    Budge (1937 W – 1941 USPro)
34    Rosewall (1960 Wem – 1964 USPro)
31    Kramer (1946 US – 1950 USPro)
29    Wilding (1909 A – 1914 W)
29    Laver (1969 A – 1970 W)
28    Djokovic (2015 W – 2016 F)

Here are the decimal odds for this Wimbledon from bet365.com on Jun 17, 2016:
1    Djokovic    1.72
2    Murray    4
3    Federer    9
4    Raonic    17
5    Wawrinka    19
6    Kyrgios    23
7    Nishikori    29
8    Dimitrov    51
9    Tsonga    51
10    Berdych    51
11    Del Potro    51
12    Thiem    51
13    Cilic    67
14    Gasquet    81
15    Isner    81
16    AZverev    81
17    Tomic    126
18    KAnderson    126
19    FLopez    151
20    Ferrer    151
21    Kohlschreiber    151
22    Karlovic    151
23    Monfils    151
24    Coric    201
25    Sock    201
26    Goffin    201
27    Janowicz    201
28    Muller    201
29    Dolgopolov    201
30    Gulbis    201
31    Pospisil    201
32    Bautista-Agut    201

2017 Supreme Jedi, 2017 Lord Vader, 2017 Chivalrous Wookie, 2015 Naboo Champion

Re: Wimbledon 2016 is here!

Nice Charles!

2018 Roland Garros Yoda Cup, Year End #3
2017 Obi Wan Master, Wimbledon Yoda Cup, Year End #2, Yoda Crew Player of the Year
2016 Obi Wan Master, Year End #2
2015 Lord Vader, Roland Garros Yoda Cup

Re: Wimbledon 2016 is here!

Goodness.  Classic Dwight!

Re: Wimbledon 2016 is here!

Gotta love Sneaky! lol

Re: Wimbledon 2016 is here!

LOl nice speech Sneaky.

Yeat ATP is all about the money, no doubt.

The 32 seeds rule really allowed the top players to get through. Imagine Novak getting Karlovic in the first round? Or Isner? I mean it changes a hell lot of thing.

And the seeding rules changed: 1-4 can only get 13-16 for R16 as 9-12 are for the 5-8... 1-8 get 25-32 in R32 and 9-16 get the 17-24... If you mixed all those up (1-8 can randomly draw 9-16 in R16 and 1-16 randomly get 17-32), it would already be MUCH better as well. More even.

2016: Rey Saber, Lord Vader, Supreme Jedi, Yoda Crew player of the year
2014: Lord Vader, King Droid, Naboo Champion, Yoda Crew player of the year
2013: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion, Yoda Cup Guru Runner-up
2012: Yoda Cup Wimbledon champion

Re: Wimbledon 2016 is here!

Yes, Borg didn't have long strokes.

And of course, Federer has as many French titles as he has Wimbledons, so clearly there's no difference between the surfaces...

It's kind of amazing that there were any repeat slam winner in the 70's with those wide open draws... outrageous odds that Borg would win 11 and Connors 8 - the odds must be millions to one that a random player could do that...

smile  All in good fun!!

2017 Supreme Jedi, 2017 Lord Vader, 2017 Chivalrous Wookie, 2015 Naboo Champion

Re: Wimbledon 2016 is here!

In any and every sport that is profitable, I have accepted corruption. Not embraced, just accepted the reality.  It's the way the world works.  Despite these things, somehow, I can enjoy a sport like tennis.  Not as much as I used to, when I was "wet behind the ears", but it still provides moments of entertainment.